Frequently asked questions:
Market Vane Corporation
P.O. Box 90490
Pasadena, CA., 91109-0490 USA
Phone (626) 395-7436 
  Fax: (626) 795-7654

What is The Bullish Consensus?
When was The Bullish Consensus started?
What is contrary opinion?
How is the Bullish Consensus calculated?
How can the Bullish Consensus be used for trading commodity futures?
Is the Bullish Consensus public sentiment?
Which commodity futures are followed by The Bullish Consensus?
Which market sentiment is the best?
What is the best way to receive the Bullish Consensus?
Can the Bullish Consensus be used with trading software?
Is historical data of the Bullish Consensus available?
Can I download The Bullish Consensus into an Excel Spreadsheet?

What is The Bullish Consensus? The Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment for a particular market, such as Gold. For example: a Bullish Consensus of 65% for Gold implies that 65% of the traders are bullish and expect the price of Gold to rise. Conversely, 35% of the traders are bearish and expect prices to decline. The Bullish Consensus is sometimes referred to as market sentiment.

When was The Bullish Consensus started? The Bullish Consensus originated in 1964 and was first used for taking Contrary Opinion positions in the commodity markets. As a result of the consistent accuracy in evaluating Contrary Opinion situations, the Bullish Consensus became the yardstick of the industry.

What is contrary opinion? A Contrary Opinion situation exists when a market runs out of new buyers in an over-bought situation or runs out of new sellers in an over-sold situation. The Contrary Opinion levels are generally the highest and lowest Bullish Consensus readings of each market for the past year or so. The Bullish Consensus is well known for being able to pinpoint market tops and bottoms. Many people claim to be "contrarians" and boast of being able to buy low and sell high. Market Vane's Bullish Consensus has been around since 1964, well before most "contrarians" even recognized the concept of Contrary Opinion.

How is the Bullish Consensus calculated? The Bullish Consensus is compiled daily by tracking the buy and sell recommendations of leading market advisers and commodity trading advisers relative to a particular market. The advice is collected by: 1. Reading a current copy of the market advisers' market letter. 2. Calling hotlines provided by advisers. 3. Contacting major brokerage houses to learn what the house analyst is recommending for the different markets. 4. Reading fax and E-mail sent from advisers. The buy and sell recommendations from each adviser are  tracked during the day to verify the entry and exit of each trading position. The Bullish Consensus is compiled at the end of the day to reflect the open positions of the advisers as of that day's market close.

How can the Bullish Consensus be used for trading commodity futures? The Bullish Consensus can be used for trend following and for Contrary Opinion situations. The Bullish Consensus is a measure of sentiment towards a given market and will generally increase with rising prices and decline with falling prices. When the Bullish Consensus reaches an extreme over-bought or over-sold level prices usually correct or reverse direction - often quite briskly. The Bullish Consensus can help keep you on the right side of the market.

Is the Bullish Consensus public sentiment? The Bullish Consensus is market sentiment which is derived by tracking the buy and sell recommendations of leading commodity futures market advisers. The Bullish Consensus should not be confused with the Commitment of Traders report put out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission {CFTC}. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is a good source for getting the bigger picture of market participation relative to contracts held by individuals. However, a Bullish Consensus of 65% for Gold doesn't automatically equate to a 65% bearish position held by larger traders as reported by the CFTC.

Which commodity futures are followed by the Bullish Consensus? As of January, 2003,  there are 36 commodity futures tracked by The Bullish Consensus.

Commodity Exchange Trading
Symbol
name in
BC database
Oats CBT O Oat
Corn CBT C Cor
Wheat CBT W Whe
Soybeans CBT S Bea
Soybean Oil CBT BO Oil
Soybean Meal CBT SM Mea
Pork Bellies CME PB Bel
Lean Hogs CME LH Hog
Live Cattle CME LC Cat
Feeder Cattle CME FC Fca
Orange Juice NYCE JO Oju
Sugar (World) CSCE SB Sug
Cocoa CSCE CC Coa
Coffee CSCE KC Cof
Cotton NYCE CT Cot
Lumber IOM LB Lum
High Grade Copper COMEX HG Cop
Platinum NYMEX PL Pla
Silver COMEX SI Sil
Gold COMEX GC Gol
Eurodollars IMM ED Eur
T-Bonds CBT US Bon
Ten Year T-Notes CBT TY TY
US Dollar Index FINEX DX DX
Canadian Dollar IMM CD Dol
British Pound IMM BP Pou
Deutsche Mark IMM DM Mar
Swiss Franc IMM SF Sfr
Japanese Yen IMM JY Yen
Euro Currency IMM EC EC
Light Crude Oil NYMEX CL Cru
No. 2 Heating Oil NYMEX HO Hea
Unleaded Gas NYMEX RB Ung
Natural Gas NYMEX NG NG
S&P 500 IOM SP Stk
NASDAQ 100 IOM NQ NQ

Which market sentiment is the best? Market Vane's Bullish Consensus has been published on a weekly basis since 1964 and on a daily basis since November, 1988. The Bullish Consensus is published on more chart services and in more publications than the other sentiment indicators. We don't claim to be the best, only the most well-known.

What is the best way to receive the Bullish Consensus? The best way to receive the Bullish Consensus on a daily basis is online. Please note that the Bullish Consensus is also available on a weekly basis. The weekly Bullish Consensus updates are provided on Tuesdays. Also, several charts are included in the daily and weekly online updates.

Can the Bullish Consensus be used with trading software? The Bullish Consensus can be used in trading software that allows you to import Lotus or Excel files or ASCII data.

Is historical data of the Bullish Consensus available? Historical data for the Bullish Consensus is available from 1969 through the present. Note: Historical data for most financial futures only goes back to 1982. Current Bullish Consensus historical data is $25 and it's $10 per year for prior years and can be sent as attached files via the Internet. You must be able to receive attached files through your Internet Service Provider. The Bullish Consensus historical data is sent as Excel 7.0 worksheet files. If you need the Bullish Consensus historical data in a different format, then please specify the format when ordering the data.

Can I download the Bullish Consensus into an Excel Spreadsheet on a daily basis via E-mail? This is possible if  you have Microsoft Excel 7.0 or later. First, open the E-mail message and highlight the data, choose copy, then paste it into a blank Excel Spreadsheet/Workbook. Once pasted into the Excel Spreadsheet, choose Data from the menu with your left mouse button and move the cursor down the list until it points to Text to columns...  This will begin the Convert Text To Columns wizard. Left click the mouse again and choose the Fixed Width option.  Note: the data pasted into the blank spreadsheet should still be highlighted for this procedure to work. Follow the three steps in the Convert Text To Columns wizard and your data will be separated from the text.

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